Latest Surveys
The most recent polls about vote in Cataluña come from the CEO (CIS Catalan), who published his poll on November 27, 2024. There are also other estimates, such as Sergi288 of 8 February 2025, which were shared on platforms like X. These are the most important references:
- CEO Survey (27 November 2024)
- PSC (Socialistes): 27% (39-42 seats, average 41)
- Junts: 18.5% (30-32 seats, average 31)
- ERC: 13.5% (20-21 seats, average 21)
- PP: 11% (15-16 seats, average 16)
- Vox: 7.5% (10-11 seats, average 9)
- Comuns Sumar: 7% (6-7 seats, average 6)
- CUP: 6% (5-6 seats, average 5)
- Aliança Catalana: 5% (6-7 seats, average 6)
- Sergi288 poll (8 February 2025)
- PSC: 39-41 seats
- Aliança Catalana: ~20 seats (approximately estimated)
- Junts: About 20 seats, in struggle with AC for second position
- ERC: In decline, below Junts and AC
- PP, Vox, Comuns, CUP: No exact figures, but with a downward trend or stability compared to 2024.
Who would win today
According to the recent surveys, Salvador Illa’s PSC profiles as the winner of the elections in Cataluña if they were held today, maintaining its status as the main political force with an estimate of between 39 and 42 seats, according to the CEO, or even 41 seconds Sergi288. Although this represents a slight decrease over the 42 seats that they achieved in May 2024, it remains sufficient to lead the Parliament, which has a total of 135 seats, where the most absolute is located in 68. However, they would not achieve the absolute majority by themselves, which means they would need to form alliances to govern.
The second position is at stake. Junts, with Carles Puigdemont as a featured figure, remains the second force according to the CEO, with an average of 31 seats. However, the Sergi288 poll suggests that Aliança Catalana could be about to match or even overcome Junts, with up to 20 seats. This increase in AC could shift to ERC, which is between 20 and 21 seats according to the CEO, to a fourth place, putting at risk the traditional domain of independence that Junts and ERC have shared.
Extended Angiosis: Factors and Trends
1. PSC Domain
- Strengths: The PSC continues to capitalize on its image of stability and its alliance with the central government of Pedro Sánchez. Salvador Illa’s office as president since August 2024, after her inauguration with support from ERC and Comuns, reinforces her position. His discourse of reconciliation and rejection of radical independence attracts moderate and union voters.
- Weakness: The dependence on pacts with ERC and Comuns limits its autonomy, and the wear of governing could affect its support if it does not meet expectations on issues such as self-financing or housing (seven as the chief concern in the CEO).
2. Auge de Aliança Catalana
- Growth: AC, led by SÃlvia Orriols, has passed from 2 seats in 2024 to a 6-7 (CEO) projection or even 20 (Sergi288). His speech combines radical independence with anti-immigration and political stances to the ” establishment” of Catalonia, capturing the protest vote.
- Electoral base: Its support grows in rural areas and small towns, where the discontent with the metropolitan CSP gestion and the “pactist process” of Junts and ERC is greater. They also attract CUP, Junts and abstentionists.
- Impact: If AC reaches the 20 seats, it could overcome ERC and challenge Junts for the leadership of the independence bloc. However, its far-right ideology makes alliances with other sovereign parties difficult, fragmenting that space even more.
3. Declive of ERC and Junts
- ERC: After losing 13 seats in 2024 (from 33 to 20), his fall continued by the wear of government (up to May 2024) and the departure of Pere Aragonà ̈s from the first line. His pact with the PSC to investigate Illa has alienated part of his independence base.
- Junts: Although he resists as a second force in the CEO, AC’s competition and the lack of clear advances in the “process” since the exile of Puigdemont erode his support. His pragmatic discourse clashes with AC radicalism.
4. Right Spanish (PP and Vox)
- PP: With 15-16 seats, it is consolidated as a fourth force, benefiting from the collapse of Citizens and the moderate unionist vote.
- Vox: It is set in 9-11 seats, loses land in front of PP and does not capitalize on the rise of AC, which contests the conservative vote of identity.
5. Other Parties
- Comuns Sumar and CUP: Both remain in 5-7 seats, but lose relevance. The CUP suffers from AC’s competition in the radical independence vote, while Comuns cannot stand out in the left block.
Governmental Scenarios
- Government of the PSC: With 39-42 seats, Illa would need to rebuild the pact with ERC (20-21) and Comuns (6-7), adding 65-70 seats. This would exceed the absolute majority (68), but the fragility of ERC could complicate stability.
- Independentist Block: Junts (31), ERC (21) and CUP (5) added 57 seats according to the CEO, far from 68. With AC (6-20), they could approach (63-77), but the ideological incompatibility between AC and the rest makes this coalition unlikely.
- Block: The fragmentation, with AC as a hinge but isolated force, could lead to an electoral review, as analysts suggest after similar polls in July 2024.
Conclusion
The PSC could win the elections today, but that does not ensure that they can form a strong government without having to negotiate with allies that are weakened. The ascension of Aliança Catalana is the most remarkable phenomenon, since it is changing the political landscape in Cataluña by capturing the discontented vote and challenging Junts and ERC. This growth reflects a growing polarization and a rejection of the status quo, both of moderate independence and of the PSC-Comuns progression. If AC manages to consolidate the 20 seats that Sergi288 has projected, it could change the balance of power, although its ideological isolation could limit its direct influence on governance. Cataluña seems to be on his way to a more divided parliament than ever, with complicated pacts or new choices in sight.
