Today, March 26, 2025, the race for the Golden Ball 2025 is in full swing. Names such as Kylian Mbappé, Raphinha, Mohamed Salah and Lamine Yamal stand out as favorites, according to bet houses, artificial intelligence predictions and analysis of sports newspapers. This prestigious award, awarded by France Football, recognizes the best player in the world, evaluating its individual performance (goles, assistance, impact), the collective titles he has won and his behavior in the field during the 2024-2025 season. Below, we offer a detailed analysis of the current ranking, which integrates betting data, artificial intelligence and game evaluations to date.
Methodology of analysis
The ranking is built considering:
- Individual statistics: Goles, assists and participation in key plays (according to data from Transfermarkt and Opta until 25 March).
- Collective performance: Titles won or in dispute (ligas, Champions League, international competitions).
- Betting houses: Contributions from Bet365, Betfair and Bwin, reflecting the market consensus as at 25 March.
- IA predictions: Models like those of Sport.es (5 March) and simulations based on current trends.
- Behavior and narrative: Leadership, consistency and public perception, according to newspapers as Brand brand, AS and Goal.
The season is at a crucial moment, with the full-fledged leagues, the Champions League reaching the final quarters and events like the Nations League that are impacting the ratings.
Current ranking of the Golden Ball 2025
Based on the information available, this is the top 5 provisional:
- Raphinha (FC Barcelona)
- Game: The Brazilian lives his best season since he arrived at Barça in 2022. With Hansi Flick, he has consolidated himself as offensive leader, highlighting for his versatility (band and indoor areas), bargaining (2.8 per game) and definition.
- Statistics: 27 goals and 20 assists in 42 matches (all competitions). In Champions, adds 8 goals, being key in the ranking to quarters.
- Behavior: Remarkable maturity, without controversy, and a silent leadership that contrasts with its irregular past. His double before the Atletico (18 March) and his goal in the Supercopa raise him.
- Betting: Cuota of 3.25 (Betfair, March 18), leader after the elimination of Liverpool de Salah in Champions.
- IA: Sport.es places it as a favorite for 2025, projecting a League or Champions title.
- Journals: AS Apuestas (17 March) sees it as “the highest candidate” for its impact on Europe. Goal (10 March) places him first in his Power Ranking.
- Fortress: Consistency and outstanding numbers in a Barça leader of LaLiga.
- Skills: You need a big title to seal your candidacy.
- Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid
- Game: After a titling start in Madrid, Mbappé has found his rhythm, highlighting for his speed, bargaining (3.1 per game) and smelling goleador in key nights. His hat-trick to Manchester City in Champions (February) marked a turning point.
- Statistics: 31 goals and 4 assists in 43 matches. In LaLiga, he pursues Lewandowski for the Pichichi (17 goals).
- Behavior: Its adaptation has improved, but it is still under scrutiny by gestures of frustration (as after 1-2 with Villarreal).
- Betting: Cuota of 3.50 (Betfair), second after Raphinha, benefited by the fall of Salah.
- IA: Sport.es He sees him winning in 2025, assuming a Real Madrid Champion of Champions.
- Journals: Brand brand (28 February) places it fifth, but its recent form rises to the second place Goal (18 March). AS (18 March) highlights its KO to Liverpool as a key impulse.
- Fortress: Capacity to shine in decisive parties and projection of titles with Madrid.
- Skills: Less impact on assistance and criticism for its initial irregularity.
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
- Game: The Egyptian was the favorite until a week ago, with an electric football, leadership and a lethal mix of goals and assists. His bargain (2.5 per game) and vision made him unstoppable.
- Statistics: 32 goals and 22 assists in 43 matches. Leader in Premier (20 goals), but the elimination in Champions before PSG (18 March) hit him.
- Behavior: Impeccable, an undisputed leader in a Liverpool leading the Premier.
- Betting: He fell from 1st to 3rd place (fourth 4.00, Bet365), after losing the EFL Cup and the Champions League.
- IA: It does not appear in the projections Sport.es after his recent draw.
- Journals: Goal (18 March) dropped it from top 5, but AS Apuestas (18 March) keeps him in the podium for his numbers. The Guardian (19 March) regrets her “infernal week”.
- Fortress: Exceptional individual numbers and probable Premier title.
- Skills: Lack of European success and recent stumps.
- Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona)
- Game: At the age of 17, Yamal is a global feeling. Their bargain (3.4 per game), vision and imbalance make it unique, although their role has decreased slightly in 2025 compared to Raphinha.
- Statistics: 13 goals and 17 assists in 34 games. His goal in the Nations League to the Netherlands (March 23) was viral.
- Behavior: Amazing matureness, although his response to Van der Vaart (“Pantallions down…”) generated debate.
- Betting: 7.50 (Bwin), fourth after its sustained impact.
- IA: Sport.es He sees him winning in 2027, but includes him in the top 5 for 2025.
- Journals: Brand brand (28 February) places it tenth, but AS (17 March) he climbs to the third after his MVP before the Atletico. Goal (10 March) sees it seventh.
- Fortress: Generational talent and projection in a competitive Barça.
- Skills: Less regularity than Raphinha and dependence on titles.
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
- Game: English is still an elite “9” with impeccable positioning and an average of 0.9 goals per game. His leadership at the Bayern is indisputable.
- Statistics: 29 goals and 10 assists in 32 games. In Champions, add 7 goals.
- Behavior: Exemplary professional, without dispute.
- Betting: 3rd note (Bet365), affected by the irregularity of the Bayern.
- IA: Sport.es He doesn’t prioritize it, but he sees it as an outsider.
- Journals: Goal (10 March) places it third, but Brand brand (28 February) lowers it to the ninth due to lack of titles.
- Fortress: Glossary and potential consistency in Champions.
- Skills: The Bayern does not lead the Bundesliga, and its trophy drought weighs.
Other relevant names
- Vinicius Jr. (Real Madrid): 17 goals and 12 assists, but their irregularity and sanctions relieve them (question 11.00, sixth in Goal).
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG): 30 goals and 6 assists, fourth in bets (note 9.00), but their impact is less than Ligue 1.
- Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): 22 goals in 35 games, but their role has changed (cut 11.00, seventh in Goal).
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City): 20 goals, but the City does not shine (note 6.00, out of the top 5 after a slow start).
- Julián Alvarez (Atlético): 20 goals, outsider in Brand brand (octavo).
Key factors and trends
- Targets and assistance: Raphinha (47 participations) and Salah (54) lead, but Mbappé (35) and Dembélé (36) stand out in big nights. Yamal (30) impresses by age.
- Titles: The Champions will be decisive. Barça, Madrid and PSG are in rooms; the Bayern, in doubt; and Liverpool, outside. The Premier (Salah) or LaLiga (Raphinha, Mbappé) will add points.
- Behavior: Raphinha and Salah win by maturity; Mbappé and Vinicius lose by controversial gestures; Yamal generates debate for his replica to Van der Vaart.
- Narrative: The absence of Messi and Ronaldo opens the door to new stars. Yamal could be the youngest to win ( Ronaldo’s record, 22, 1997).
Conclusion
Today, Raphinha stands out for its consistency, its numbers and the good time of the Barça, followed closely by Mbappé, who always shines in the eliminations. Although Salah has had a bass, it still remains in the podium thanks to its large individual season. Yamal and Kane complete the top 5, with the potential to raise positions if their teams win titles. The IA is betting for Raphinha or Mbappé by 2025, but the bets and the media reflect that the race is open, and it will be the final stage of the season (from April to June) that defines the winner. For now, Raphinha’s total game puts it a step forward, but the Golden Ball 2025 promises to be exciting until the last minute.
