The final of the Copa del Rey 2024-2025 will be an epic clash between the FC Barcelona and Real Madrid, a Classic that undoubtedly stands out as one of the most exciting games of the season. This expected meeting is scheduled for Saturday, April 26, 2025, at the Stadium of La Cartuja in Seville, and has already caused a great stir between fans, experts, sports media and gambling houses. I will then perform a detailed analysis of what is expected of this match, based on the available information, artificial intelligence predictions, expert opinions, sports media analysis and the quotas of the gambling houses, as well as evaluating the possibilities of Real Madrid and the expected result.
Context of the match: Barcelona as favorite
The FC Barcelona reaches this end as the clear favourite, according to several sources. His way to the end was marked by a tight but forceful victory against the Madrid Atletico in the semifinals, where the global score was 5-4, thanks to a decisive goal of Ferran Torres in the match back on April 2, 2025. On the other hand, Real Madrid also had to strive to achieve the final, achieving a two goal deficit against the Real Society in the semifinal back, advancing with a 5-4 in the global.
Barcelona’s domain on bets and predictions is based on several key factors:
- Recent form: Barcelona has been in an impressive streak, staying undefeated in 20 matches in all competitions until April 2025, as reported by bettingexpert.com. His last defeat was precisely against the Atlético de Madrid on December 21, 2024, highlighting his consistency under the direction of Hansi Flick.
- Previous results against Real Madrid: This season, Barcelona has had impressive control in its direct duels with Real Madrid. In LaLiga, the culés took a strong 4-0 victory in Santiago Bernabéu, and at the end of the Spanish Super Cup, they were imposed with a 5-2. These results have strengthened the idea that Barcelona is above its eternal rival.
- Statistics and injuries: Barcelona has faced fewer injuries problems compared to Real Madrid. The whites have had to deal with significant absences in their defense, such as that of Dani Carvajal, who has been out since September 2024 due to a break from the previous cross ligament, and Éder Militão, which has weakened their defensive line. Instead, Barcelona has managed to maintain a more stable template, with key players such as Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal in excellent shape.
IA predictions, experts, sports newspapers and gambling houses
Artificial Intelligence
Predictive models, such as those using platforms like BetMines and SportsLine, are inclined to favor Barcelona. Based on historical data and current trends, it is estimated that Barcelona has a 57% chance to win (this is calculated from algorithms like Sportytrader, which analyzes previous matches between these two teams). This figure is due to its outstanding offensive performance, with an average of 16.5 shots per game in LaLiga, according to Sporting News, and its solid defense, which has allowed less goals than Real Madrid this season. In addition, artificial intelligence highlights the importance of Lewandowski, who leads LaLiga with 20 goals and has scored 9 in the Champions League, making him a strong candidate to mark the final.
Experts
Experts like Jon Eimer of SportsLine and Kyle Bonn of Sporting News agree that Barcelona has a clear advantage. Eimer, who has an impressive record of 260-133-1 in his recent bets, has highlighted Lewandowski’s ability to stand out in the crucial moments, even predicting that the Polish front will mark in the end. On the other hand, Bonn mentions Raphinha as a key player, who has accumulated 3 assists in his last 5 encounters against Real Madrid and has a special talent to create opportunities (21 contributions to shots in 4 matches as headline against the whites). Both experts anticipate that Barcelona will take the victory by a tight margin, with a result that could be 2-1 or 3-2, especially considering the defensive weaknesses of Real Madrid.
Sports journals
The main sports journals, such as The Standard, are also forecasting a victory for Barcelona. According to The Standard, “the previous clashes between Barcelona and Real Madrid this season suggest that the Copa del Rey will return with the team of Hansi Flick”. In Spain, media such as Marca and Sport have highlighted the tactical superiority of Barcelona under the command of Flick, who has implemented a fast and effective game style that has disarmed rivals like Real Madrid. Sport, in particular, has highlighted the lack of cohesion in the attack of Real Madrid, where Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Jr., Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo have failed to find a balance, being Vinícius the most consistent against Barcelona, with 4 goals in their last 7 matches against them, according to Sporting News.
Betting houses
The quotas of the betting houses clearly show that Barcelona is the favourite. According to OddsPortal and BetMGM, Barcelona has quotas of -160 (which means you need to bet 160 to win 100), while Real Madrid appears as the underdog with +370. If the match ends in tie after 90 minutes, the quotas are +310, and the over/under of goals is set at 2.5, with a high probability that they are over (60.16% of the Copa del Rey matches have had more than 2.5 goals, according to BetMines). Betsson Peru, in a post in X, estimated that there was a 57.5% chance of facing Real Madrid and Barcelona in the final, and now that that has been confirmed, the quotas for Barcelona to win are 1.74. These figures reflect the confidence in Barcelona, although Real Madrid is still considered a dangerous rival thanks to its history and ability to turn the parties around.
Feeling on social networks
In X, most people seem to be on the side of Barcelona. Users like @JaviloteGHouse and @ang_guillen have commented that Barcelona is the “great favorite” thanks to its good game and the defensive problems of Real Madrid, which have been described as a “defense that makes waters”. Another user, @grok, mentioned that statistics (less injuries and better form in LaLiga) and recent results (4-0 and 5-2) suggest that Barcelona could be victorious. However, not everyone thinks the same; some Real Madrid fans believe that the Ancelotti experience in the end and the individual talent of players like Vinícius could give the bell.
Party Analysis: What is expected?
Key factors for Barcelona
- Lethal attack: The offensive trident formed by Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal has been really unstoppable. Lewandowski, with 20 goals in LaLiga and 2 in the King’s Cup, has become a constant threat to defenders. For his part, Yamal, at the age of 17, has left a mark with 13 goals and 16 assists in all competitions, highlighting himself in the major matches, as when he scored and attended the duel against Real Madrid this season. Raphinha, with his ability to overflow and his creativity, has also done his part, recording 5 shots and creating 4 occasions in his last meeting against Real Madrid.
- Defensive solidity: Despite some injuries, such as Marc ter Stegen, Barcelona has managed to maintain a strong defense. Iñigo Martínez and Ronald Araújo (if available) have become a trusted couple. His ability to grant few opportunities, as @ang_guillen mentioned in X, will be fundamental in the confrontation against a Real Madrid that depends largely on his fronts.
- Flick Game Style: Hansi Flick has transformed Barcelona into a fast and vertical team, which presses high and exploits the spaces. This has been particularly effective against Real Madrid, which has had problems defending rapid transitions this season.
Key Factors for Real Madrid
- Individual Talent: Despite its challenges as a team, Real Madrid has players who can change the course of a game on their own. Vinícius Jr. has become a real nightmare for Barcelona, noting 4 goals in its last 7 meetings, and his ability to create danger in one against one could be key. Bellingham, although it has not been at its best, remains a threat in the area, and Mbappé, despite its lack of consistency, has the potential to shine in the important moments.
- Ancelotti Experience: Carlo Ancelotti has an enviable record in the end, having won the King’s Cup in 2023 against Osasuna. Their ability to tactically adjust the team in major parties could give Real Madrid an advantage, especially if it manages to neutralize the Barcelona attack.
- Defensive weakness: The lack of Carvajal and the uncertainties about Militão have left Real Madrid a little exposed in defense. Lucas Vázquez, who probably occupies the right side position, has had difficulties in recent matches, and the absence of a fast center to cover the gaps could be exploited by the speed of Yamal and Raphinha.
Party Scenario
An exciting and full game of goals is anticipated, especially considering the recent record between these two teams (4-0, 5-2) and the statistics of the Copa del Rey, where more than 60% of the matches have more than 2.5 goals. Barcelona will surely try to mark the rhythm from the beginning, pushing high and looking for quick transitions to take advantage of any neglect in the defense of Real Madrid. On the other hand, Real Madrid could opt for a more cautious strategy, yielding possession and looking for counterattacks led by Vinícius and Mbappé.
A crucial aspect will be the confrontation in the midfield. If Barcelona, with players such as Frenkie de Jong and Pedri (if available), manages to maintain possession and limit the transitions of Real Madrid, it will have a considerable advantage. However, if Real Madrid, with Tchouaméni, Valverde and Bellingham, manages to impose its physicist and recover balloons in dangerous areas, it could cause serious problems to Barcelona.
Expected outcome
IA prediction
Based on data and trends, Barcelona has a 57% chance of winning, with a result that could be 2-1 or 3-2. Artificial intelligence highlights the importance of Lewandowski and Yamal as key players, while Real Madrid will have Vinícius to stay in the fight.
Expert opinion
The experts agree that the Barcelona will take the victory, although by a tight margin. Jon Eimer predicts a 2-1, with Lewandowski as a scorer, while Kyle Bonn leans for a 3-2, highlighting Raphinha’s ability to create danger opportunities. Both agree that Real Madrid will succeed in marking, but it will not be enough to overcome the strength of Barcelona.
Sports journals
The Standard and Sport predict a victory of Barcelona, with a probable result of 2-1. Mark, although more cautious, recognizes that Barcelona is the favorite, but does not rule out a surprise of Real Madrid if Ancelotti manages to adjust tactically to the team.
Betting houses
The quotas (-160 for Barcelona, +370 for Real Madrid) reflect a clear advantage for the culés. The high probability of more than 2.5 goals suggests an open match, with a probable result of 2-1 or 3-2 in favor of Barcelona.
My analysis
I agree with most of the predictions: Barcelona has an advantage thanks to its good timing, its tactical solidity and the defensive problems facing Real Madrid. However, we cannot completely rule out Real Madrid. The experience of Ancelotti and the individual talent of Vinícius and Mbappé could keep the game in the fight. I believe that Barcelona will take victory 2-1, with goals of Lewandowski and Yamal, while Vinícius will score for Real Madrid. The party promises to be intense, with Barcelona dominating the possession and Real Madrid seeking counterattack opportunities, but the lack of defensive solidarity of the whites will be the key factor.
Does Real Madrid have any possibility or is it all open?
Real Madrid has some possibilities, although they are somewhat limited. Their final experience and the quality of their players give them a chance, especially if they manage to take advantage of the counterattacks and reduce defense errors. However, Barcelona is in better shape, has fewer injuries and has proven to be superior in the direct clashes of this season. Although the party is not decided, Barcelona is the clear favorite, and only an outstanding performance of Real Madrid or a serious mistake of Barcelona could alter the result.
Conclusion
The final of the Copa del Rey 2024-2025 between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid promises to be a game full of emotion, with Barcelona as the clear favorite. Both artificial intelligence, as well as experts, sports media and gambling houses agree that the culés have the lead, with a probable result of 2-1 or 3-2. Although Real Madrid has individual talent and the experience of Ancelotti, its weakness in defense and the lack of cohesion in the team put it in a complicated position. On the other hand, Barcelona, with Lewandowski, Yamal and Raphinha in charge, and a solid tactical system under the direction of Flick, seems to be destined to lift the trophy on April 26, 2025 in Seville.
