Tonight, April 9, 2025, FC Barcelona faces Borussia Dortmund in the Olympic Stadium Lluís Companys, in the one-way match of the final quarters of the UEFA Champions League 2024/25. This duel promises to be a real clash of styles: the Barça’s associative and offensive game will be measured against the intensity and verticality of the Dortmund. Both teams arrive in good shape, although with some significant casualties, which means that the result could depend on small tactical details and moments of individual brightness. Then I present a deeper analysis of what awaits us.
Current Context
Barcelona, under the direction of Hansi Flick, is enjoying a great moment. They are the leaders of LaLiga, with 10 consecutive victories before their 1-1 draw against the Betis last weekend. The culés have scored 25 goals in their last 8 games at home in all competitions. In the Champions League, their 3-2 victory in Dortmund during the group phase has given them confidence, although it also reminds them of the danger posed by the Germans in the transitions.
For its part, the Dortmund, led by Niko Kovac, comes after a convincing 4-1 victory over the Freiburg in the Bundesliga and a complicated classification before the Lille in the eighth (3-2 in the global). Despite their irregularity in the national league, which has left them out of the Champions League posts, they have proved to be resilient in Europe, especially out of the house, with an impressive record of 5 wins in 7 matches this season.
Probatable Tactical Systems
Barcelona (Hansi Flick)
Flick has consolidated a dynamic 4-3-3, with variants towards 4-2-3-1 according to the rival. Their approach combines possession, high pressure and rapid offensive transitions.
- Defense: Jules Koundé as right side and Alejandro Balde on the left, with Pau Cubarsi and Iñigo Martínez in the center. The sides will go up to give bread.
- Midfield: Jong Frenkie as pivot, flanked by Pedri and Gavi (or Fermin López if Gavi is not 100%). Pedri will be the creative brain; Gavi will bring intensity.
- Attack: Lamine Yamal and Raphinha in the bands, with Robert Lewandowski as a fixed ‘9’. Mobility of the ends and arrivals from the second line will be key.
Possible Adjustment: If the Dortmund presses up, Flick could use a double pivot (De Jong-Casado, if the latter is available) to secure the balloon output.
Borussia Dortmund (Niko Kovac)
Kovac usually employs a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with a medium-low block to absorb pressure and go out in lethal contras.
- Defense: Without Nico Schlotterbeck, Emre Can could delay the center with Waldemar Anton, with Marius Wolf (or Ryerson) and Ian Maatsen on the sides.
- Midfield: Felix Nmecha and Salih Özcan in containment, with Julian Brandt or Jamie Gittens more advanced as a creative link.
- Attack: Serhou Guirassy as a tip, supported by Karim Adeyemi and Donyell Malen (or Gittens if Malen is not 100%). The speed in the bands will be your main weapon.
Strategy: Dortmund will seek to close spaces in the middle and exploit the back of Balde or Koundé with long passes to Adeyemi or Guirassy.
Probable alignments and injuries
Barcelona
- Titles (4-3-3): Wojciech Szczesny; Koundé, Cubarsi, Iñigo Martínez, Balde; De Jong, Pedri, Gavi; Yamal, Lewandowski, Raphinha.
- Banquillo: Iñaki Peña, Eric García, Ferran Torres, Fermín López, Pau Víctor.
- Lessionate: Marc-André ter Stegen (ligaments, down to 2026), Marc Casado (dude for muscle discomfort), Marc Bernal (rodilla, long duration), Dani Olmo (aductor, doubt for May), Ronald Araújo (in recovery, not 100%).
- Notes: Araújo may be on the bench, but Flick will not risk his full return. Iñigo Martínez, already recovered, points to headline.
Borussia Dortmund
- Titles (4-2-3-1): Gregor Kobel; Wolf (or Ryerson), Can, Anton, Maatsen; Nmecha, Özcan; Adeyemi, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy.
- Banquillo: Alexander Meyer, Donyell Malen, Pascal Groß, Kjell Wätjen.
- Lessionate: Nico Schlotterbeck (menisco, out all season), Marcel Sabitzer (rodilla, doubt), Niklas Süle (golpe, in recovery), Ramy Bensebaini (molestias, doubt).
- Notes: Schlotterbeck’s descent weakens the rope, and Sabitzer, if he doesn’t arrive, will subtract experience. Adeyemi, after his recent goal, will be the headline.
Predictions
Experts
- UEFA.com: Predicts a 2-1 for Barcelona, highlighting its strength at home and the good time of Lewandowski (8 goals in Champions).
- Opta: 63% chance of victory I culminated, 20% draw, 17% German win. Expected result: 2-1.
Sports Journals
- World Sports: “The Barça is intractable at home. Lewandowski and Yamal will make the difference. 3-1. ”
- AS: “Dortmund can score, but Barcelona has more gunpowder. 2-1. ”
- Bild (Germany): “Without Schlotterbeck, it will be difficult to resist. Prediction: 1-2 for the Barça. ”
Artificial Intelligence (Grok)
Based on current trends, I see an open party but with an advantage for Barcelona for its offensive depth and the defensive fragility of the Dortmund. My prognosis: Barcelona 2-1 Dortmund, with a late goal that will keep the deletion alive.
Betting Houses (Odds at 9/4/25)
- Bet365: Barcelona -250 (71% probability), +375, Dortmund +650. More than 2.5 goals: -150.
- William Hill: Barcelona to win and both teams mark: +160. Most likely exact result: 2-1 (+900).
- Bwin: Lewandowski brand first: +300.
Decisive factors
- Barcelona: The Pedri-Lewandowski connection and the explosiveness of Yamal. If they get a goal early, they could disarm the Dortmund.
- Dortmund: The performance of Kobel under sticks and the effectiveness of Guirassy in the contragolpes. They need to take advantage of any defensive cyé.
- Key moment: The first 20 minutes. If the Barça imposes its rhythm, it will be difficult for the Germans to go back.
Where to See the Party
- Spain: Movistar+ (20:00 CEST).
- USA: Paramount+ (3:00 PM EDT).
- Latin America: ESPN and Star+ (14:00-15:00 per country).
- United Kingdom: TNT Sports (20:00 BST).
- Streaming: UEFA.tv in some markets or with VPN.
Final analysis
Barcelona arrives as a favorite thanks to its good time, a more complete template and the support of its hobby, as they have won all their Champions games at home this season. But we must not underestimate the Dortmund, who has his own cards to play: his speed and Kovac experience in this sort of elimination. I look forward to a very intense party, with the Barça controlling possession (about 60-65%) and the Dortmund looking to hurt the contragolpe. The most likely result is 2-1 for the culés, although a 1-1 tie would not be a surprise if Kobel has a bright night. The elimination will be open for the match back at Signal Iduna Park. Get ready for a big show!
