Remontada en el Bernabéu: The DNA of Madrid Finds Another Hazaña in front of the Arsenal

The UEFA Champions League final quarters match between Real Madrid and Arsenal will be held on Wednesday, April 16, 2025 (not on the 17th, as mentioned in the consultation, according to official information from UEFA and media such as Arsenal.com and UEFA.com) at 21:00 (Spanish peninsular time) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Real Madrid arrives with a 3-0 drawback after a blunt defeat at the Emirates Stadium, where the Arsenal dominated with two goals of Declan Rice and a bit of Mikel Merino. Next, there is an extended analysis of the game back, the possibilities of dating, the alignment and tactics that Ancelotti could employ, the opinions of the press and the fans, and the predictions of the AI and the gambling houses.

Context of the Party of Return

Real Madrid is facing a monumental task if it wants to reach the semifinals. They need to win at least 3-0 to force the extension, or for four goals or more to qualify directly (such as 4-0, 5-1, etc.). However, the white team has several obstacles ahead: its performance has been irregular, there are significant casualties, and they will face an Arsenal that proved to be superior both tactically and physically in the first match. In addition, Eduardo Camavinga, who was expelled at the previous meeting, will be suspended, which further complicates the options in the midfield.

On the other hand, the Arsenal arrives with confidence after its exhibition in London. However, Mikel Arteta confirmed that Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice suffered discomfort (a blow and a foot problem, respectively), although they do not appear to be serious injuries. The Arsenal will seek to maintain its defensive solidity and take advantage of the spaces that Madrid leaves when attacking.

Real Possibilities of Remontada

Historically, turning around a 3-0 in the Champions League is something really unusual. According to the data we have, only three teams have managed to reverse a disadvantage of three goals throughout the history of the tournament, and none of those backs have been given in quarters of finals under the current rules (where the visitor goal no longer counts double). This places the likelihood that Real Madrid will achieve a date around 5-10%, according to statistical analysis and X publications that reflect the general consensus.

Factors for the Real Madrid:

• The Bernabéu Factor: The Santiago Bernabéu is known for being a scenario where Madrid has achieved epic dating, such as those of 2022 against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City. The hobby can create an intimidating environment that pushes Arsenal.
• Experience in Champions: Madrid is the king of Europe with 15 titles, and players like Luka Modric, Antonio Rüdiger and Thibaut Courtois have experience in high-pressure situations.
• Individual Quality: Despite their bad game on the one hand, players like Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Jr. and Jude Bellingham have the ability to change a match with a genius.

Factors against:

• Actual form: Madrid has shown irregularity this season. Before the one-way match, he lost 2-1 against Valencia in LaLiga and has had defensive problems, as he saw in his Copa del Rey match against the Royal Society, where he set four goals in Bernabéu.
• Keys: Camavinga is suspended, and Dani Carvajal, Eder Militão and Ferland Mendy are still injured. Also, according to posts in X, Mbappé and Courtois are doubt for the party back, which would be a devastating blow.
• Solidez del Arsenal: The Arsenal demonstrated on the one hand that can neutralize the offensive trident of Madrid (Mbappé, Vinicius and Rodrygo hardly generated danger). His defense, led by William Saliba and Jakub Kiwior, was impeccable, and his work in play balls stopped is lethal.
• Lack of Cohesion: Madrid has depended too much on individual actions and has lacked a clear collective plan, something that Ancelotti recognized after one.

Statistical Analysis:
In the first match, the Arsenal had total control with 60% possession and fired 15 shots, of which 6 went to the door, while Madrid only got 5 shots, with 2 to the door. Madrid needs an impeccable party: marking soon to exert pressure, avoid defense errors and be blunt in attack. However, the Arsenal has proved to be a strong team outside of home in Europe this season, as he avoided with his impressive 7-1 against the PSV in the previous round.

Conclusion on the Reassembly:
Although Madrid has a history full of epic backs, the chances of this happening this time are quite low, probably between 5% and 10%. The Arsenal, for its part, is in better shape, has fewer injured players and demonstrated a higher tactical level in the one-way match. In order for Madrid to turn around the scoreboard, it would need a radical change in its attitude, a vibrant Bernabéu and an outstanding performance of its stars.

Alineation and Tactical Scheme Ancelotti Should Use

Given the context, Ancelotti needs an aggressive but balanced approach to find the way back without leaving spaces that the Arsenal can explode in quick transitions. Here is the suggested alignment and tactic:

Proposed alignment (4-2-3-1):

• Porter: Thibaut Courtois (if available; otherwise, Fran González). Courtois was the best in Madrid on the way, and his presence is crucial to avoid the Arsenal marque, since a goal of the Gunners would complicate even more the dating.
• Defenses: Lucas Vázquez (right side), Raúl Asencio, Antonio Rüdiger, Fran García (left side).
  • With Carvajal and Militão injured, Vázquez and García are the best options on the sides, although both showed fragility on the side. Asencio and Rüdiger must be solid in the center, especially in the air game to neutralize the Arsenal’s standing balls.
• Mediocampo: Federico Valverde, Luka Modric.
  • Without Camavinga, Valverde and Modric must form the base of the midfield. Valverde provides physical and arrival, while Modric, with its ability to break lines (average 17.5 break passes for 90 minutes in this Champions League), can be key to connecting with attackers.
• Mediapunta: Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes, Vinicius Jr.
  • Bellingham must play more advanced, like a free “10” to take advantage of its arrival and pressure capacity. Rodrygo and Vinicius must be more incisive than on the way, overflowing with the bands and looking for diagonals.
• Delantero: Kylian Mbappé (if available; otherwise, Endrick).
  • Mbappé, despite his irregularity on the one hand, is the most unbalanced player in Madrid. If you can’t play, Endrick, who has shown quality flashes, could be an option to bring freshness.

Tactical Scheme (4-2-3-1 with Rapid Transitions):

• In Attack: Madrid must press high from the start to recover the ball near the rival area and generate quick occasions. Bellingham must act as a link between the midfield and the attack, while Rodrygo and Vinicius open the field for the bands. Mbappé must be the benchmark in the area, looking for auctions and disarms.
• In Defense: The team must maintain a medium block to prevent the Arsenal from exploiting the spaces with Saka and Martinelli. Valverde and Modric must be attentive to the rapid transitions of the Arsenal, while the sides (Vázquez and García) should not go up too much to leave gaps.
• Balón Parado: Madrid must be impeccable in defense to prevent the Arsenal from failing or córner, something in which the Gunners are lethal. In attack, players like Rüdiger and Bellingham must take advantage of the corner looting to look for the goal.

Tactical Keys:

1. Marcar Temprano: Madrid needs a goal in the first 15-20 minutes to get into the game and turn on Bernabéu. A 1-0 fast could change the psychological dynamics of the meeting.
2. Avoiding Defensive Errors: The defense of Madrid has been fragile this season, as was seen in the party against the Real Society. Gifts such as the faults that propitiated Rice’s goals cannot be allowed.
3. Take advantage of the Psychological Factor: Madrid must use the mystique of Bernabéu to press the Arsenal, a team that, despite its great performance on the one hand, does not have the Madrid experience in this type of situation.

Reviews of Newspapers and Followers

Sports Press:

• AS (Spain): After the departure, AS pointed out that Madrid needs “a call to epic at Bernabéu”. However, he also stressed that “if it is for the game, no one can trust in Madrid”, reflecting skepticism on the backs due to the lack of cohesion of the team.
• Marca (Spain): Marca was tougher, describing Madrid as “terrible, flat, without ideas, without plan, without game”. While acknowledging the history of the club in Champions, it does not see the current team capable of a trace of this magnitude.
• El País (Spain): The newspaper praised the goals of Rice and the performance of Courtois, but noted that Madrid “did not show collective response” behind the goals, which makes it “very complicated”.
• The Guardian (United Kingdom): The Guardian celebrated the Arsenal victory and pointed out that “this Real Madrid does not seem capable of a four-goal ride,” highlighting the Gunners’ tactical superiority.
• L’Équipe (France): The French media described Madrid as “meconnaissable” (irrecognizable) and sees the Arsenal as a clear favorite to advance to semifinals.

Followers (According to Feeling in X):

• Real Madrid fans are divided. Some cling to the mystique of Bernabéu and to the history of the club, with comments like “It is not impossible, we are Madrid”. However, many are pessimistic, noting the lack of attitude and the casualties: “With this team we do not go back in dreams.”
• The followers of the Arsenal are euphoric behind the road, but also cautious. Phrases like “Don’t trust us, Bernabéu is another level” are common. Most rely on the defensive solidity of the team and Arteta’s ability to maintain control.

Analysts:

• Alvaro Benito (explayer of Madrid): “I believe in dating, believing is free. Real Madrid can win perfectly 3-0 to Arsenal, but they have to do things a million times better than they have.” His commentary reflects hope, but also realism about the bad timing of the team.

IA Predictions and Betting Houses

IA (Opta Supercomputer and Previoural Analysis):

• Before the one-way party, the Opta Supercomputer gave the Arsenal 50.2% of possibilities to advance the semifinals, while Madrid had 49.8%. After 3-0, the odds of Madrid to turn the situation have fallen into a bit. According to publications in X that quote IA analysis, the possibilities for Madrid to get back are approximately 5%, due to the rare that it is to reverse a 3-0 and the current level of both teams.
• The Arsenal is considered a “complete” team (as mentioned by Ancelotti and the analysts of UEFA.com), highlighting for its robust defense (which is the second with fewer goals granted in the competition) and its excellent performance in play balls stopped. On the other hand, Madrid has evidenced weaknesses in its defense and a lack of cohesion in the game.

Houses of Betting:

• Victoria del Madrid: The bet houses, as seen in the previous match, tend to favor Madrid in Bernabéu. They are likely to offer quotas of about 1.80-2.00 for a victory in Madrid, but not necessarily for the necessary margin to go back.
• Remontada del Madrid: The quota for Madrid to advance to semifinals (i.e., wins for 4+ goals or for 3-0 and is imposed on the extension/penaltis) is probably around 8.00-10.00, reflecting the improbable of the scenario.
• Precise marker: A 3-0 in favor of Madrid could have a quota of 15.00-20.00, while a 4-0 would be even higher, around 30.00-40.00.
• Both Anotan Teams (BTTS): Given the offensive approach that Madrid will need, houses are likely to offer a low share for the BTTS, around 1.60, as the Arsenal can take advantage of the transition spaces.

Analysis of the Assessments:
The betting houses reflect the general consensus: Madrid can win the game, but dating back the elimination is an almost impossible task. The Arsenal is the clear favorite to advance, with probable quotas of 1.20-1.30 to classify semifinals.

Extended Analysis of the Return Party

Scenario More Probable:
Madrid will leave with a lot of intensity from the beginning, looking for an early goal to get into the game. If they manage to mark in the first 20 minutes, the Bernabéu will become an authentic boiler and the Arsenal could feel the pressure. However, the Arsenal has the advantage of being able to play with the result: they do not need to attack immediately and can expect their chance to counterattack with Saka, Martinelli and Odegaard.

Key Points of the Party:

1. First Gol: If Madrid marks first, the party will open and the possibilities of dating will increase slightly (perhaps 15-20%). If the Arsenal notes, the elimination will be virtually sentenced, as Madrid would need five goals.
2. Paradox Ball: The Arsenal is lethal in play with a paradox ball, as seen with the goals of Rice. Madrid must avoid faults near the area and be solid in the córners.
3. Attitude of Madrid: On the way, the team broke down after the first goal of Rice. If they repeat that lack of reaction, they will have no choice. Players like Bellingham and Vinicius must show more defensive commitment and leadership.
4. Arteta Management: Arteta has insisted that his team will go to Bernabéu to “domit the game”. It is likely that the Arsenal will opt for a middle block, yield to Madrid and search for quick transitions to sentencing the elimination.

Party prediction:
Madrid has the possibility to win the match for a tight margin, like 2-1 or 3-2, thanks to the support of Bernabéu and his need to attack. However, it is quite unlikely that they will get the 4-0 they would need to turn the situation around. If the Arsenal marks any time of the party, that would force Madrid to score five goals, something that seems to be beyond its capabilities at this time. My forecast is 2-1 in favor of Real Madrid, but with the Arsenal advancing with a 4-2 global.

Semifinals:
If the Arsenal advances, he will face the winner of the PSG vs Aston Villa. According to the previous analysis, the PSG is favorite to pass, which could lead to a semi-final Arsenal-PSG, a duel between two teams that have surprised this season in Europe.

Conclusion

The back of Real Madrid is a dream that, although not impossible, feels quite unlikely. The white team needs a real miracle: an impeccable match, a Bernabéu full of energy and an Arsenal that makes unexpected mistakes. However, the Arsenal has proved to be a very complete team, with a solid defense, a great tactical work and the ability to capitalize on the opponent’s mistakes. The press, the fans, the AI and the gambling houses agree that the Arsenal is the clear favorite to advance to the semifinals. Madrid can rely on its rich history and the mystique of Bernabéu, but this time, it seems that its way to the end will stop in the quarters of the final.